GFS Pride sinks as Hormuz attacks slow oil shipments

GFS Pride sinking and other vessel attacks

Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority said the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride had sunk after an attack in the Strait of Hormuz. All 21 crew members were evacuated with no injuries reported. The vessel sustained damage and an onboard fire. The cause of the sinking remains disputed.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said the ship hit naval mines while using a route they called unauthorised. By contrast, UKMTO and maritime-security reporting described a strike by an unidentified projectile, while Marisks said there was no independent evidence that a mine caused the sinking.

Marisks said it viewed Iran's mine account as a psychological operation aimed at spreading fear and uncertainty and discouraging commercial shipping. The Maritime and Port Authority condemned the attacks on commercial vessels as unprovoked, unjustifiable and a breach of international law.

The authority said another Singapore-flagged vessel, GFS Giselle, suffered hull damage after being struck but reached safe anchorage. No crew injuries were reported aboard that vessel.

The attacks followed the September 23 projectile strike on the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged bulk carrier Cape Dao near the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime officials later reported that the vessel sank weeks afterward. One crew member was killed in the strike, and the rest of the crew were evacuated immediately afterward.

A broader shipping threat

Marisks said the threat had expanded beyond tankers to container ships and bulk carriers, exposing a wider range of commercial trade to serious damage. Before this escalation, the Strait of Hormuz carried about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied-natural-gas trade. Kpler attributed reduced crude shipments through the strait to the increased rate of attacks. Reuters reported that shipping and insurance costs, alongside continuing attack threats, were complicating efforts to restore normal traffic through Hormuz.

Switching off tracking devices does not provide effective protection, Marisks said. Its assessment was based on three vessels struck by unidentified projectiles that it confirmed had been navigating with their trackers off. It described the threat to merchant ships as indiscriminate and highly unpredictable. Three ships struck that week were operated by the same firm, which Marisks said raised concerns about possible operator-linked targeting.

Iranian escalation and U.S. military assessment

Reuters reported that two senior Iranian officials said Iran was deliberately escalating and adapting its attacks, changing both their type and pace. The officials said the aim was to frustrate U.S. and allied efforts to bring down global oil prices and influence the environment for the U.S. midterm elections.

The officials said Tehran intended to expand operations beyond the strait. One unnamed senior official predicted that the passage would soon be completely closed to vessels Iran considered to be violating its restrictions.

A U.S. military official said the IRGC had begun using unarmed spotters in small boats to identify potential targets, including U.S. naval vessels. The official assessed that Iran had been unable to prevent an increase in oil exports.

Drewry Maritime Advisors said Khorfakkan and Sohar had become critical gateways for Gulf cargo after wider container networks avoided Hormuz. Jayendu Krishna, a maritime adviser, warned that escalation into the Gulf of Oman could threaten alternative ports and cut off a significant share of supplies to Gulf countries.

Oil flows and market pressure

U.S. Central Command said American forces and regional partners controlled the Strait of Hormuz and that commercial traffic continued to pass through the waterway with coordinated protection by American forces and regional partners. Kpler's estimate, however, showed that continued passage had not returned oil flows to their level at the end of September.

Amid the wider escalation, Brent crude reached an intraday high of $110 (£82.59) a barrel, its first such level since May. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 3.5% to settle at $101.41 (£76.14) a barrel.

CNBC's analysis attributed upward price pressure partly to the attacks and possible supply disruption, while noting that inventory conditions also contributed to market movements.

Despite reduced flows and higher costs, maritime experts including Collin Koh expected commercial shipping to continue transiting the strait, while warning that further attacks could deter more operators. They cited strong Asian demand for Middle Eastern oil, lucrative voyages and operators' willingness to accept higher costs and risks.