Lula wins fourth term as Bolsonaro vows election challenge

Brazil’s electoral court has confirmed left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s runoff victory over right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, securing Lula a fourth presidential term. He won 51.8% of valid votes to Bolsonaro’s 48.2%, a lead of about 4.4 million votes.

Bolsonaro refused to concede and said he would seek to annul the election, arguing that a two-hour voting extension changed the rules during the vote and left voters facing unequal conditions. His Liberal Party later accepted the outcome while calling for clarification of his objections.

Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended polling after weather and transportation disruptions, following requests from both campaigns. Electoral-court president Kássio Nunes Marques said the extension did not affect the result.

Only about 34,000–35,000 votes were cast after the original closing time, according to reporting by the BBC and other outlets—far fewer than Lula’s winning margin. Legal experts said annulment faced a high bar and considered Bolsonaro’s effort unlikely to succeed.

On Monday, Donald Trump described the result as rigged without presenting evidence. Lula cast his victory as a rejection of denialism and lies, after campaigning on Brazilian sovereignty against U.S. pressure. The Independent reported that Trump’s tariffs had generated nationalist resentment that Lula used politically.

Analysts cited by The Independent said Lula’s win complicates U.S. efforts to recruit Brazil into an anti-cartel military alliance and secure favored access to Brazilian critical minerals. Lula opposed close security integration, saying it could endanger sovereignty and that Brazil would fight criminal groups at home.

Turning the race around

The result reversed the first round on Oct. 4, when Bolsonaro led with 47% to Lula’s 45%. Lula became the first candidate since Brazil restored direct elections in 1989 to win the runoff after finishing second in the opening vote.

Abstention fell from 21.08% to 19.22% between the two rounds. Lula added 10.38 million votes, while Bolsonaro gained about 3.7 million, according to electoral-court figures reported by Courthouse News Service.

Lula’s campaign mobilized supporters through the Lula’s Army WhatsApp channel, led by Congressman André Janones. The channel grew from around 60,000 followers to nearly 11 million in three weeks. Lula’s allies credited the operation as an important part of his comeback.

Political scientists cautioned that its independent electoral impact could not be isolated from grassroots activity. They described a victory combining online communication, street-level organization, turnout efforts and messages about social programs and rights.

Power and its limits

For the 2027–2030 term, Lula will face a center-right and right-wing congressional majority, with Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party holding its largest bloc in decades, according to CNBC. Guilherme Casarões said Congress had blocked nearly everything Lula had tried to accomplish, leaving him limited room to govern.

The next term also carries the power to appoint four Supreme Court justices, the New York Times reported, giving Lula a role in shaping Brazil’s course on divisive issues beyond legislation.

Environmental advocates welcomed Lula’s re-election, citing fears that Bolsonaro would dismantle rainforest protections and Lula’s pledge to end deforestation by 2030. Amazon deforestation fell 36% from the previous year between August 2025 and March 2026, Inside Climate News reported.

But advocates also pointed to continued oil, mining and agricultural expansion under Lula and urged stronger protection. Maurício Voivodic warned that the right-wing Congress could threaten Lula’s environmental and social agenda and raise the risk of rollbacks in forest-protection laws.

Financial markets delivered an immediate setback after the result. The real fell about 12% against the dollar in spot trading and the Bovespa stock index dropped 10%, triggering a 30-minute trading halt, Al Jazeera reported.

Market analysts said investors had positioned for a Bolsonaro victory and tighter fiscal policy. They cited expectations of more domestic spending and higher interest rates under Lula, with public debt above 82% of GDP.

Lale Akoner distinguished the reversal of positions built for a Bolsonaro win from a sudden deterioration in the economy. Akoner said financially healthy companies could become attractive investments if uncertainty eased and Lula demonstrated spending restraint, while expecting near-term volatility to continue.

On Monday, Brazil’s Treasury canceled auctions of inflation-linked and fixed-rate government bonds that had been scheduled for Oct. 27 and Oct. 29.